{"id":35669,"date":"2025-10-06T13:34:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T10:34:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/t4t-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=35669"},"modified":"2025-10-06T13:34:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T10:34:52","slug":"how-a-surging-stock-market-may-be-keeping-the-economy-out-of-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.t4trade.com\/fr\/how-a-surging-stock-market-may-be-keeping-the-economy-out-of-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"How a surging stock market may be keeping the economy out of a recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite tariffs, political turmoil, and a weakening jobs outlook, the stock market\u2019s continued growth is powering consumer spending and helping keep the economy from slipping into the recession many had expected by now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strong economic indicators<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Recent economic data revealed a surprisingly strong performance. Consumer spending and incomes both outperformed expectations in August, with businesses and households still making big-ticket purchases while inflation has been relatively soft. Even the housing market showed renewed strength, with new home sales climbing to their highest level in three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revised figures released Thursday showed that gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% annualised rate in the second quarter, half a percentage point higher than previously thought. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed raised its GDP tracking estimate for the third quarter to 3.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from its projection a week ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commerce Department numbers released Friday reported a 0.6% rise in consumer spending for August, stronger than expected. Spending adjusted for inflation increased 0.4%, indicating consumers are coping with rising prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From stimulus to the wealth effect<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the past, such trends were largely fuelled by trillions in stimulus from both congressional spending and low interest rates and liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, however, the story is changing towards the wealth effect coming from Wall Street as rising stock markets keep hitting new highs despite high valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, said Friday on CNBC that he believes the stock market rebound is driving the wealth effect, with most spending coming from high-income, high-net-worth households whose rising stock portfolios make them feel better off and more willing to spend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stock market has steadily climbed this year, boosted not only by huge AI spending, no doubt, but also by gains in major industrial companies and communications giants. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen over 9%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has climbed 23%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumers tend to be happier when stocks are rising and unemployment is low, as is the case now. However, according to the University of Michigan, overall sentiment this year has steadily declined, dropping 23% since January when President Donald Trump took office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A double-edged sword<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although the stock market has been setting new records this month, economist Mark Zandi warns that such strength could be resting on shaky ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe economy\u2019s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason,\u201d he said. \u201cPeople start seeing red on their screens and not green on their screens and the savings rate goes up not down. In the current context of no job growth, that\u2019s recession.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valuations remain a concern<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The main concern over the stock market is valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at 22.5 times expected earnings over the next year, significantly higher than its five- (19.9) and 10-year (18.6) trends, according to FactSet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even so, recent economic data show little sign of recession pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation is still above the Fed\u2019s 2% target, with the core rate at 2.9%. However, monthly increases are consistent with previous trends and Wall Street expectations, keeping the Fed on track for a likely rate cut in October and potentially another in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe economy has continued to surprise to the upside and despite the negativity captured in surveys and expressed by commentators, actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations,\u201d said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More good news, more danger<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There was more positive economic news this week as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durable goods orders also unexpectedly increased, while new home sales jumped 20%. These gains came as a recent increase in jobless claims proved to be temporary, with layoffs remaining low, though payroll growth has also been flat at best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOften, when people feel pessimistic about the near-future economy, they begin reigning in spending, but that hasn\u2019t been the case thus far,\u201d said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer site NerdWallet. \u201cIn fact, the strength of the consumer is credited with keeping the economy strong for the past handful of years, despite high inflation, high [interest] rates and great uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Renter also pointed out that the economy is on a knife\u2019s edge, with many consumers missing out on the stock market gains, and overall sentiment at recession-like levels. She explained that wealth provides some insulation from perceived economic volatility, and investors have generally been doing well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cConsumers are attuned to the current economic risks \u2014 inflation and labour market weakness. This could be due to first-hand experiences \u2014 food prices rose significantly last month \u2014 or because they\u2019re on edge from headlines tracking key economic data. In any case, people aren\u2019t feeling great about the economy, their place within it or where it\u2019s all headed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risks and market speculation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Confidence that the market rally will continue has driven share prices higher in New York and London, even though the reasons for the optimism are shaky. In the UK, growth remains sluggish and inflation is running at almost double the Bank of England\u2019s 2% target. Ongoing speculation about tax increases is also weighing on consumer and business confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wall Street\u2019s record-breaking rally reflects a bet that artificial intelligence will boost economic growth. While that could happen, it will be years before the impact is felt. The same was said about the IT boom that drove share prices to dizzying heights in the late 1990s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No two market crashes are the same. The current situation differs from 2008, when the crash was caused by banks\u2019 overexposure to the US housing market, and turbocharged by the widespread use of new financial instruments that were meant to reduce risk but worsened it. If there are any parallels, they lie with the recession-driven stock market setbacks of the 1970s and early 1980s, when downturns were deliberately engineered to curb high inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avertissement : <\/strong>Ce document est fourni \u00e0 titre informatif et \u00e9ducatif uniquement et ne doit pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un conseil ou une recommandation en mati\u00e8re d'investissement. T4Trade n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s ou li\u00e9s par hyperlien dans cette communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite tariffs, political turmoil, and a weakening jobs outlook, the stock market\u2019s continued growth is powering consumer spending…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":34093,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stocks","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStock Market Growth Fuels Spending Despite Recession Fears<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite inflation, weak jobs data, and political turmoil, rising stock markets and strong consumer spending are keeping the economy afloat.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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