{"id":15290,"date":"2022-12-09T13:53:17","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T13:53:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/t4t-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=15290"},"modified":"2023-11-13T15:06:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-13T13:06:05","slug":"wti-hits-lowest-levels-for-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.t4trade.com\/pt\/wti-hits-lowest-levels-for-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI hits lowest levels for the year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It has been a rough week of <strong>crude oil<\/strong> prices as a plethora of converging fundamentals weighed negatively on the <strong>commodity<\/strong>. <strong>WTI<\/strong>, the dollar denominated benchmark for <strong>oil prices<\/strong>, slumped to the $<strong>72 dollars per barrel<\/strong> yesterday, its lowest level for the year, as echoing worries for severe <strong>economic downturns<\/strong> across the globe which foreshadow a possible suppression of the <strong>demand<\/strong> outlook for the <strong>commodity<\/strong>. It is certainly a crucial period for <strong>oil<\/strong> prices as a plethora of <strong>converging catalysts<\/strong> such as <strong>China\u2019s<\/strong> recent gradual <strong>reopening<\/strong> announcement, <strong>OPEC<\/strong>+ <strong>decision<\/strong> to maintain output <strong>supply cuts<\/strong> throughout 2023 and <strong>European Union\u2019s<\/strong> finalized <strong>$60<\/strong> per barrel <strong>price cap<\/strong> on <strong>Russian crude<\/strong>, all influence the <strong>commodity\u2019s<\/strong> price action in their own way. This report aims at analyzing the fundamental drivers influencing WTI\u2019s price action and seeks to assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"360\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/oil-animated-analysis.gif\" alt=\"An oil barrel with a dollar sign, symbolizing the financial aspect of the oil industry\" class=\"wp-image-15298\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wall-street-bankers-comments-shake-the-markets\"><strong>Wall Street bankers\u2019 comments shake the markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier this week, a parade of US banking CEOs painted a bleak picture for the future outlook of the US economy, sounding the alarm bell for an <strong>impending<\/strong> <strong>recession<\/strong>. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, unleashed mayhem on the markets with his stark comments as he foresees at least a mild or worse, a <strong>hard recession<\/strong> hit the US economy next year. Among the list of factors that led to his case are the <strong>deteriorating economic conditions<\/strong> being tarnished by <strong>persistently elevated inflationary pressures<\/strong> alongside the <strong>aggressive overtightening efforts<\/strong> from the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong>, both of which erode consumers\u2019 purchasing power. Among others, CEOs from prominent banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, stated that they foresee <strong>negative growth<\/strong> in the first part of 2023 and hinted at job and bonus cuts as well as freezing the hiring processes. The <strong>grim outlook weighed<\/strong> as a result on <strong>oil prices<\/strong> since deteriorating economic conditions and below trend growth projections bring a toll on the <strong>demand<\/strong> side of the <strong>commodity<\/strong>. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-opec-maintains-initial-supply-cut-decision\"><strong>OPEC+ maintains initial supply cut decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>O <strong>oil cartel<\/strong> at its latest meeting decided to continue forth with the existing <strong>output supply cuts<\/strong> of 2 million barrels per day throughout 2023, announced in October, yet in the joined statement it was explicitly written that the group has \u201cthe ability to take further measures, if required, to achieve <strong>balance<\/strong> e <strong>stability<\/strong> in the market\u201d. Comments of similar nature were made in the past by the Qatari head of <strong>OPEC<\/strong>, Haitham Al Ghais as well as the Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman al Saud, signaling to the market that the <strong>group remains vigilant<\/strong>, <strong>ready<\/strong> <strong>para<\/strong> <strong>intervene<\/strong> <strong>should prices deviate<\/strong> substantially from the cartels\u2019 target range. The <strong>divergence of oil prices<\/strong> por dia, <strong>market fundamentals<\/strong> has been a point of reference in recent months from the group, which vowed to restore order and achieve price equilibrium. On another note, on Wednesday, the China\u2019s President Xi Jinping travelled to Saudi Arabia discussing the possibility for <strong>oil<\/strong> related <strong>bilateral agreements<\/strong> between the two nations at a critical period. It would be interesting to monitor further developments and news announcements for a potential alliance, as in recent months the <strong>long-standing relationship<\/strong> between the Gulf nation and the West have been unstable over criticism of human rights violations and the <strong>timing<\/strong> of the <strong>2-million-barrel supply cut announcement<\/strong> a week prior of the <strong>US midterm elections<\/strong>. Yesterday, Saudi officials signaled that the kingdom is actively seeking to expand partnerships to serve economic and security interests, irrespective of the recent warnings drawn from the West, criticizing the dealings between nations of the Gulf with both China and Russia. Should an agreement materialize, where Saudi Arabia is to supply the oil consuming giant China, we may see <strong>oil<\/strong> prices <strong>receive support<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"850\" height=\"360\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/oil-wti.jpg\" alt=\"An oil barrel surrounded by gold coins and a pie chart, representing the interplay of commodities and financial analysis.\" class=\"wp-image-15296\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-cash-h4\"><strong>WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/wti-oil-4h-chart-09-12-2022-technical-analysis-t4t.png\" alt=\"An oil report, providing valuable insights into the oil industry\" class=\"wp-image-15806\" width=\"850\" height=\"360\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe <strong>oil<\/strong> prices losing significant ground, plummeting to their year-to-date lows and currently the price action flirts with the 72.00 support base. We hold a <strong>bearish outlook bias<\/strong> for the price action of the <strong>commodity<\/strong> given the <strong>descending trendline<\/strong> alongside the <strong>death cross<\/strong> formed on the 17<sup>th<\/sup> of November, noted with the red arrow on the chart, validating its <strong>downward extension<\/strong>. Furthermore, supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a reading of 33, highlighting the <strong>bearish sentiment<\/strong> surrounding <strong>WTI<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bears<\/strong> continue to navigate the direction of the commodity, we may see the definitive break below the 72.00 (S1) support level and the price action moving lower, closer to the 69.00 (S2) <strong>support base<\/strong>, a level once seen before on the 21<sup>st<\/sup> of December 2021. Should on the other hand, the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take over the initiative we may see the price action <strong>reverse<\/strong> course and head towards the 77.00 (R1) resistance level (23.6% retracement). On a more extreme scenario we would expect the price action to break past 77.00 (R1) level and head closer to the 80.00 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong> (38.2% retracement).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Isen\u00e7\u00e3o de responsabilidade: <\/strong><em>Este material tem por objetivo apenas uma informa\u00e7\u00e3o geral e educativa e n\u00e3o dever\u00e1 ser considerado como  aconselhamento ou recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o ao investimento. O T4Trade n\u00e3o \u00e9 respons\u00e1vel por quaisquer  dados fornecidos por  terceiros aqui mencionados, ou com  links diretos, nesta comunica\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It has been a rough week of crude oil prices as a plethora of converging fundamentals weighed negatively&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":15294,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.2 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Oil Outlook: WTI hits lowest levels for the year | Analysis report<\/title>\n<meta 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